What Happened with the Flows
An outflow is when more money is withdrawn from a fund than is deposited: the manager sells assets to cover redemptions. The report did not disclose breakdowns by individual coins or regions.
The Data That Set It All Off
On October 14, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published September inflation: 3.7% year over year versus a consensus of 3.6%. Month over month, growth was 0.6%, with more than half driven by gasoline, which rose 9.1%. Core inflation (excluding food and fuel) was 0.3% for the month and 2.6% for the year versus 2.4% in August.
The next day, producer prices came out: +1.3% for the month and +6.3% for the year, the strongest monthly gain since March 2022.
Market Reaction
After the inflation report, BTC fell below $82,000; after the producer price data, it traded around $81,500, down 3.6% in a day. By October 16, the price held above $80,000: a rebound in South Korean tech stocks and traders lowering rate hike expectations helped.
Why This Matters
In September, the Fed raised the rate by 25 basis points, to a range of 3.75-4.00%. John Williams, head of the New York Fed, on October 13 allowed for another hike before the end of 2026. Polymarket's prediction market on October 15 estimated the probability of the rate staying unchanged at the October meeting at 75%, with another 25% on a quarter-point hike.
What's Next
CoinShares calls the current conditions for BTC "difficult" but views the selling as a data-driven range rather than a trend. The nearest triggers: October 29 - the first estimate of US third-quarter GDP and September personal consumption expenditures, November 17 - October retail sales. Both figures will form the basis for the December rate decision.
Did you watch BTC ride on US statistics?
When institutions withdraw $434 million, 3-4% candles become an ordinary day. Only in an account with a couple thousand dollars, such a day is coffee, not a result, even though the work and nerves are the same. Prop trading works differently: you pass a challenge and get the company's account under management, rather than growing your own deposit for years. Before October 29 and the next batch of data, there's time to calmly figure out how this scheme works.